Budget Dust

Francois Duc de la Rochefoucauld stated, “Everyone complains of his memory, and no one complains of his judgment.” We focus on the wrong thing.

Memory is easy; write it down. Facts are free and fast. Every byte of humanity has been indexed and is searchable. Let the silicon handle recall. Focus your matter on higher-order tasks.

Judgment is what you get paid for. It’s how we value people. Jobs, Musk, and Bezos assessed situations, made predictions and took action. Each had limitless opportunities, but judgment narrowed their vision.

Memory is not a skill worth improving. The world’s collective knowledge sits just beneath your fingertips. Making your dent in the universe requires creativity and discernment.

Improve your judgment, increase your value, enjoy your life.

Fyodor Dostoevsky said it and he’s right. Decisions are made in the context of their time. Decisions and context cannot be uncoupled. I can’t point to a single decision I ever made with the intention of failing, yet in hindsight, I look back on hundreds of blunders and wonder how it could have gone any other way.

Was I in a hurry? Had I fallen for the sunk cost fallacy and doubled down? Was I biased by consistency syndrome? Was I hungry? Was I tired? All of the above?

Decisions make sense at the time, otherwise, it would have been done differently. Don’t be so hard on yourself. Reflect. Learn. Move on. And hopefully, we don’t repeat the same mistakes. But God willing, you will make more mistakes. Else you’re dead.

Make bets. Better yet, make predictions. Rather than money, stake reputation by putting it in writing. We are horrible predictors, but it is a skill worth developing because it hones our analysis skills and forces accountability. Build a public track record and learn from errors in judgment.

Don’t hedge. I have a bad habit of saying things like, “Mahomes and the Chiefs are a better team, but Brady’s track record speaks for itself.” I can’t lose. Either way, I look like a genius.

That’s weak sauce. Instead, be bold. Make predictions. Grade your homework. Rinse, repeat.