Fyodor Dostoevsky said it and he’s right. Decisions are made in the context of their time. Decisions and context cannot be uncoupled. I can’t point to a single decision I ever made with the intention of failing, yet in hindsight, I look back on hundreds of blunders and wonder how it could have gone any other way.
Was I in a hurry? Had I fallen for the sunk cost fallacy and doubled down? Was I biased by consistency syndrome? Was I hungry? Was I tired? All of the above?
Decisions make sense at the time, otherwise, it would have been done differently. Don’t be so hard on yourself. Reflect. Learn. Move on. And hopefully, we don’t repeat the same mistakes. But God willing, you will make more mistakes. Else you’re dead.
Make bets. Better yet, make predictions. Rather than money, stake reputation by putting it in writing. We are horrible predictors, but it is a skill worth developing because it hones our analysis skills and forces accountability. Build a public track record and learn from errors in judgment.
Don’t hedge. I have a bad habit of saying things like, “Mahomes and the Chiefs are a better team, but Brady’s track record speaks for itself.” I can’t lose. Either way, I look like a genius.
That’s weak sauce. Instead, be bold. Make predictions. Grade your homework. Rinse, repeat.
